As part of Futurescape’s multi-pronged approach to explore how media and marketing will be redefined in the years ahead, this barometer forecasts how digital ad spend trends will evolve – with a particular focus on key areas of growth such as retail media and video.
It uses statistical modelling to build on current IAB UK/MediaSense Digital Adspend data and IAB/MTM Compass data to forecast spend, as well as synthesising a range of existing market forecasts. The forecasts have been developed by Dr Daniel Knapp – a renowned economist and media analyst with over 15 years of international experience.
Key takeouts include:
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Video display is expected to grow at twice the rate of the overall market, accounting for 34% of all digital ad spend by 2030 (£14.7 billion). Within this, spend on broadcaster video-on-demand is predicted to exceed £2 billion as TV viewing habits continue to shift towards streaming
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Digital retail media ad spend is forecast to reach £8.6 billion in the UK by 2030, with annual growth rates peaking in 2025/26 at 30%. This is set to have steadied to 8% annual growth by 2030 as the market matures
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Gaming spend is on track to grow by 48% by 2030 - displaying an average annual growth rate of 7% over the next five years - to hit £1.6 billion
Forecasting ad spend up to 2030
The period the barometer currently covers is spend between 2024-2030. We will be updating it every six months to reflect latest insight. You can find the full methodology here.
