IAB UK: The traditional marketing funnel will be obsolete in five years as channel definitions crumble

Launched today, Futurescape builds a comprehensive picture of what media, marketing and consumer attitudes will look like in 2030.

The study draws on interviews with over 40 leaders from across advertising, media and tech, as well as original forecasting to predict ad spend at the turn of the decade

Agency models and planning approaches will need to become less channel-centric over the next five years, according to IAB UK's new study Futurescape. The report explores how media owners are becoming increasingly channel-agnostic and how the rise of end-to-end ad solutions through partnerships, collaborations and - in some cases - mergers with retail media platforms stand to fundamentally reshape the path to purchase in the lead up to 2030.  

The demise of the traditional media funnel will be accelerated by AI’s impact on how people discover and purchase products in the coming years. In this context, IAB UK predicts that brand marketing will become more important than ever - helping to create differentiation and win consumers’ attention in environments where instantly shoppable formats are the default. 

Futurescape has been created by IAB UK - the trade body for digital advertising - to explore the attitudes, innovations and media shifts that will shape the advertising industry in the lead up to 2030 and beyond. 

It draws on qualitative interviews with over 40 leaders from across the advertising, media and technology industries (see list of contributors below); extensive analysis of existing research from a wide range of sources; and original forecasting conducted by economist and media analyst Dr Daniel Knapp, who employed statistical modelling to plot spend trends to 2030. 

The report focuses on 11 areas that will fundamentally shape advertising and media by the turn of the decade. From all media becoming retail media, to redefining demographic targeting, it provides a comprehensive picture of what’s to come - as well as laying out the implications for advertisers and steps to future-proof businesses.

Futurescape’s ad spend forecasting draws on IAB UK/MediaSense Digital Adspend data and IAB/MTM Compass data and applies statistical modelling to predict spend trends for key areas of growth in the UK’s advertising market. 

It shows that, by 2030, total digital ad spend in the UK is set to stand at £43.1 billion - over a £10 billion incremental increase on current investment. While still healthy, this does reflect slowing annual growth rates as the market matures, with an average of 5% growth per year between 2024 and 2030. This will be outstripped by performance in key areas, including: 

• Video display, which is expected to grow at twice the rate of the overall market, accounting for 34% of all digital ad spend by 2030 (£14.7 billion) . Within this, spend on broadcaster video-on-demand is predicted to exceed £2 billion as TV viewing habits continue to shift towards streaming 
• Digital retail media ad spend is forecast to reach £8.6 billion in the UK by 2030, with annual growth rates peaking in 2025/26 at 30%. This is set to have steadied to 8% annual growth by 2030 as the market matures 
• Gaming spend is on track to grow by 48% by 2030 - displaying an average annual growth rate of 7% over the next five years - to hit £1.6 billion 
• Ad spend on Gen AI platforms is the most complex area to predict as ad solutions are still nascent in these environments. The likeliest scenario, assuming development and uptake of ad solutions evolves as expected, is that ad spend on Gen AI platforms (encompassing websites and apps of platforms listed below) will stand at £3.34 billion by 2030

Commenting on the release of Futurescape, IAB UK’s Chief Strategy Officer, James Chandler, says: “Futurescape isn’t a one-off project for us at the IAB. It’s the start of an ongoing and multi-dimensional exploration of the social shifts and technological advancements that will shape our industry. We all know that the rate of change in advertising and media can feel overwhelming, but by drawing on our experts’ analysis and the wealth of knowledge from leaders across the industry, we’re equipping businesses with the insight they need to stay ahead of the curve. This isn’t just about ensuring your business is fit for the future, it’s about being equipped to define the future, seize opportunities and thrive in a dramatically shifting landscape.” 

About Futurescape 

Released in February 2025, Futurescape has been produced by IAB UK to give marketers, planners and media owners insight into the attitudes, innovations and media shifts that will shape the advertising industry in the lead up to 2030 and beyond. The methodology spans: 

• In-depth qualitative interviews with over 40 different industry leaders to provide perspectives on future priorities. Companies involved include: Activision Blizzard Media, Advertising Association, Amazon, Anomaly, ASDA, ASOS​, Bauer Media , Brainlabs​, Channel 4​, Creates UGC, dentsu​, Enders Analysis​, ESI Media , EssenceMediacom​, Global​, Goat Agency, Goodstuff​, Google, giffgaff​, Havas Media , Hearst​, IMTB​, IPSOS​, IPA​, ISBA​, ITV​, LongTerm CoLab​, Lumen​, Mail Metro Media​, Meta​, Microsoft​, Netflix​, News UK, OC&C Consultancy​, Omnicom Media Group​, PHD​, Publicis Media, PubMatic​, Sky​, SMG​, Tesco Media & Insight Platform​, The Fifth Agency​, The Trade Desk , Thinkbox​, Uber​, Vevo. 
• New statistical modelling & analysis. IAB UK has worked with Dr Daniel Knapp, economist and media analyst, to provide robust forecasting of future of advertising spend. Knapp's statistical modelling has built on IAB UK/MediaSense’s robust archive of Digital Adspend data and IAB UK/MTM Compass data to provide predictions of spend to 2030 across key areas of growth. This will be updated on a bi-annual basis. 
• Extensive analysis of existing research. To support insight and analysis from the interview phase, extensive desk research and sourcing of existing market analysis and reports has been conducted. Notable sources of data include Ipsos iris, Ofcom State of the Nation/BARB analysis, IPA MakingSense and forecasts from agency groups such as dentsu and GroupM.​

A note on definitions for the ad spend forecasting

• Video display: Includes social video, BVOD, outstream, publisher video and AVOD
• Digital retail media: Relates to digital retail media ad revenue in the UK from owned and operated websites or apps that are primarily engaged in retail ecommerce (including brick and mortar retailers, digital-only retailers, e-commerce marketplaces and last-mile delivery companies). It includes media bought directly through a retailer's media network or demand-side platform to run on third-party properties, as well as revenue generated from retail e-commerce data that is used by third-parties to buy media campaigns
• Gaming: Gaming advertising refers to advertising placed within the game context; in-game, around the game and beyond the game
• Gen AI platforms: Encompasses monetisation of Generative AI platforms (ChatGPT, Perplexity, Anthropic, Google’s Gemini, DeepSeek) and potential future services

About Dr Daniel Knapp 

Dr. Daniel Knapp is a renowned media analyst and economist with over 15 years of international experience. He has been Chief Economist at IAB Europe for over six years. Prior to this, he worked in leadership roles spanning market analysis, strategic advisory and business intelligence including 11 years at IHS Markit and serving as an associated expert on media and AI at the European Commission. Daniel received his PhD from the London School of Economics (LSE) on the sociology of algorithms and the datafication of media.